外来生物导致的潜在损失评估方法研究:以外来疫病油菜茎基溃疡病为例

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2019.0642

生态与农村环境学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (9): 1126-1132.doi: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2019.0642

外来生物导致的潜在损失评估方法研究:以外来疫病油菜茎基溃疡病为例

卢钟山¹, 吴新华¹, 李彬¹, 周明华¹, 王颖², 周曙东²

1. 南京海关, 江苏南京 210001;
2. 南京农业大学经济管理学院, 江苏南京 210095

收稿日期:2019-08-15 出版日期:2020-09-25 发布日期:2020-09-17
通讯作者: 周曙东 E-mail:sdzhou@njau.edu.cn
作者简介:卢钟山(1965-),男,山东潍坊人,副主任医师,硕士,研究方向为外来生物入侵防控与评估。E-mail:luzs@customs.gov.cn
基金资助:
中国海关总署项目（2018IK020）；国家自然科学基金（70773055）

On the Assessment Methodology for Potential Loss Caused by Alien Organism: A Case Study of Alien Epidemic Stalk-based Ulcer Disease of Rapeseed

LU Zhong-shan¹, WU Xin-hua¹, LI Bin¹, ZHOU Ming-hua¹, WANG Ying², ZHOU Shu-dong²

1. Nanjing Customs, Nanjing 210001, China;
2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China

Received:2019-08-15 Online:2020-09-25 Published:2020-09-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以外来疫病——油菜茎基溃疡病为例，提出一种未成功入侵外来生物导致的潜在损失评估方法，根据GARP生态位模型ArcGIS栅格数据图，通过掩膜工具Extract By Mask，提取出每个适生类型在中国各省份的分布面积。构建潜在损失估算模型，从潜在直接经济损失（农产品产值损失、农副食品加工业损失和防控费用）、潜在间接经济损失（油菜旅游产业）和潜在非经济损失（生态系统功能损失）3个方面构建外来入侵生物损失估算体系。研究发现油菜茎基溃疡病入侵的潜在损失总额高达96.05亿元，其中，潜在直接经济损失、潜在间接经济损失和潜在非经济损失分别占潜在损失总量的54.9%、36.0%和9.1%。动植物检疫在防范外来生物入侵中发挥着重要作用。

关键词: 外来入侵生物, 油菜茎基溃疡病, 潜在损失, 评估方法

Abstract: In this paper, an alien epidemic stalk-based ulcer disease of rapeseed was used as an example to propose an assessment methodology for the potential loss caused by an alien organism of unsuccessful invasion. According to the GARP niche model based on ArcGIS raster data map, the distribution areas of each adaptable variety in the provinces surveyed were extracted by the mask tool-Extract By Mask. The construction of an assessment model for the potential loss was attempted, that is, an assessment methodology for the potential loss caused by alien invasive organism was constructed from three aspects: potential direct economic loss (loss of agricultural output value, loss of agricultural and sideline food processing industry, prevention and control costs), potential indirect economic loss (rapeseed tourism industry) and potential non-economic loss (loss of ecosystem function). This research shows that the total potential loss of stalk-based ulcer disease of rapeseed was estimated at as high as 9.605 billion RMB, and the potential direct economic losses, potential indirect economic losses, and potential non-economic losses accounted for 54.9%, 36.0%, and 9.1% of the total potential losses, respectively. This research concluded that animal and plant quarantine plays an important role in preventing the invasion of alien organisms.

Key words: alien invasive organisms, stalk-based ulcer disease, potential loss, assessment methodology

中图分类号:

X820.4

卢钟山, 吴新华, 李彬, 周明华, 王颖, 周曙东. 外来生物导致的潜在损失评估方法研究:以外来疫病油菜茎基溃疡病为例[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2020, 36(9): 1126-1132.

LU Zhong-shan, WU Xin-hua, LI Bin, ZHOU Ming-hua, WANG Ying, ZHOU Shu-dong. On the Assessment Methodology for Potential Loss Caused by Alien Organism: A Case Study of Alien Epidemic Stalk-based Ulcer Disease of Rapeseed[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2020, 36(9): 1126-1132.

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外来生物导致的潜在损失评估方法研究:以外来疫病油菜茎基溃疡病为例

On the Assessment Methodology for Potential Loss Caused by Alien Organism: A Case Study of Alien Epidemic Stalk-based Ulcer Disease of Rapeseed

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