基于Maxent模型和GIS的马缨丹在中国的适生区预测

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2019.0956

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 马缨丹（Lantana camara）是全球最具破坏力的100种入侵物种之一，目前已对我国南方部分地区生物多样性造成严重危害。为分析马缨丹在我国的潜在适生区，以全国479个马缨丹分布记录点、生物气候变量和地形因子为基础，采用最大熵（maximum entropy，Maxent）模型和地理信息系统（GIS）相结合进行预测。结果表明：（1）马缨丹适生区以秦岭-淮河线为界，主要分布在我国南方地区，广东、广西、香港、福建、海南和云南西南部属于马缨丹高度适生区，其面积占全国陆地面积的8.6%；浙江、江西、湖南、贵州、云南、四川和重庆等部分地区属于中度适生区，其面积占比为10.1%；低适生区和非适生区面积占比分别为27.8%和53.5%。在未来气候情景下，2040-2060年马缨丹总的适生区面积比1970-2000年增加1.6个百分点。（2）影响马缨丹分布的主要气候因子为最冷月份最低温度，其次为温度季节性变动系数和年均降水量。（3）采用受试者工作特征曲线（receiver operating characteristic curve，ROC曲线）计算曲线下面积（the area under ROC curve，AUC）平均值为0.953，标准差为0.006，表明Maxent模型对马缨丹适生区的预测结果可靠，马缨丹在我国的入侵扩散还未达到预测适生区的最大范围，仍有继续扩散的可能性。

关键词: 潜在分布, 最大熵模型, 地理信息系统, 刀切法

Abstract: As one of the 100 most destructive invasive global species, Lantana camara has seriously endangered the biodiversity in some areas of southern China. Based on 479 distribution record points, bioclimatic variables and topographic factors of Lantana camara in China, its potential suitable distribution area in China has been predicted by maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (GIS). The results show that: (1) Taking the Qin Ling-Huai He line as the boundary, the suitable distribution areas of Lantana camara are mainly distributed in southern China, in which Guangdong, Guangxi, Hong Kong, Fujian, Hainan and southwestern Yunnan belong to the highly suitable distribution areas of Lantana camara, and the areas accounts for 8.6% of the national land surface; Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan and Chongqing and other areas belong to moderate growth areas, accounting for 10.1% of the national land surface; The proportion of low-adaptive area and non-suitable distribution area accounted for 27.8% and 53.5% of the national land surface, respectively. Under the projected future climate scenario of 2040-2060, the total suitable distribution area of Lantana camara would increase by 1.6 percentage point compared with 1970-2000. (2) The main climatic factor affecting the distribution of Lantana camara is the lowest temperature in the coldest month, followed by the seasonal variation coefficient of temperature and the average annual precipitation. (3) Calculated by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), the average value of the area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.953 and the standard deviation was 0.006, which indicate that the Maxent model is reliable in predicting the suitable distribution area of Lantana camara. The invasion and spread of Lantana camara in China has not yet reached the maximum range of the predicted suitable zone, and it is still possible to continue to spread.

Key words: potential distribution, maximum entropy, geographic information system, jackknife

中图分类号:

S451
K909

张华纬, 赵健, 阎波杰, 邹杰, 李志鹏. 基于Maxent模型和GIS的马缨丹在中国的适生区预测[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2020, 36(11): 1420-1427.

ZHANG Hua-wei, ZHAO Jian, YAN Bo-jie, ZOU Jie, LI Zhi-peng. Prediction ofPotential Geographic Distribution of Lantana camara in China Using Maxent Model and GIS[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2020, 36(11): 1420-1427.

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