1994-2015年武汉城市圈湖泊演变规律及驱动力分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2020.0150

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于多时相Landsat遥感影像数据，对武汉城市圈1994-2015年间湖泊时空变化进行动态监测。根据遥感影像获取1994、2003、2009和2015年土地利用覆被情况，结合气候和经济数据，利用多元统计的方法多尺度定量化分析湖泊演变的驱动因素。结果表明21 a间武汉城市圈湖泊面积整体呈减少趋势。演变过程大致可分为3个阶段：湖泊面积复杂变化阶段（1994-2003年）、湖泊面积锐减阶段（2003-2009年）和湖泊面积缓慢减少阶段（2009-2015年），其中第2阶段湖泊面积减少最为显著，共减少117 km²。造成湖泊变化的驱动因素主要包括人类活动和气候变化2个方面。人类活动是主要驱动因素，主导着湖泊演变。城市扩张影响力度最大，其次是人口压力和农业发展，影响系数分别为0.54、0.51和0.47。气候变化对武汉城市圈的湖泊演变也有一定的推动作用，但是相比人类活动影响力度较小。

关键词: 武汉城市圈, 湖泊动态监测, 多元回归, 驱动力

Abstract: Based on multi-temporal Landsat remote sensing image data, the temporal and spatial changes of lakes in Wuhan City Circle from 1994 to 2015 were monitored dynamically. At the same time, Using land use cover obtained from remote sensing images in 1994, 2003, 2009, and 2015, combining with climate and economic data, multivariate statistical methods were used to quantitatively analyze the driving factors of the lake evolution. The results show that during the 21 years, the lake area in Wuhan City Circle showed a decreasing trend overall. The evolution process can be roughly divided into three stages: the period of complex changes in lake area(1994-2003), the period of rapid reduction in lake area (2003-2009) and the period of slow reduction in lake area (2009-2015). The most prominent decrease in lake area occurred at the second stage with total lake area declining by 117 km² totally. The driving factors for lake area changes include human activities and climate change. Human activities are the main driving factors that dominate the evolution of lakes. Among them, urban expansion has the greatest impact in lake evolution, followed by population pressure and agricultural development. The impact coefficients are 0.54, 0.51, and 0.47 respectively. Climate change has also contributed to lake evolution in Wuhan City Circle, but it has less influence than human activities.

Key words: Wuhan City Circle, lake dynamic monitoring, multiple regression, driving force

中图分类号:

何思聪, 董恒, 张城芳. 1994-2015年武汉城市圈湖泊演变规律及驱动力分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2020, 36(10): 1260-1267.

HE Si-cong, DONG Heng, ZHANG Cheng-fang. Analysis on Dynamic Changes and Driving Force of Lake Area in Wuhan City Circle From 1994 to 2015[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2020, 36(10): 1260-1267.

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