成都气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子多变量影响分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2021.0553

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于成都市2017年10-12月逐时"干"状态气溶胶散射系数和吸收系数观测数据,结合该时段同时次大气能见度(V)、相对湿度(RH)和二氧化氮(NO₂)浓度监测资料,采用光学综合法计算气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子(f),探究f因子对RH和气溶胶组分协同变化的复杂响应关系。首先,利用相关性分析和方差膨胀因子相结合的方法诊断RH、黑碳气溶胶(BC)质量浓度(ρ_BC)、ρ_BC/PM₁质量浓度(ρ_PM1)、ρ_BC/PM_2.5质量浓度(ρ_PM2.5)、ρ_BC/PM₁₀质量浓度(ρ_PM10)、ρ_PM1/ρ_PM2.5、ρ_PM1/ρ_PM10和ρ_PM2.5/ρ_PM10之间的多重共线性问题,提出f因子解释变量集(RH、ρ_BC、ρ_BC/ρ_PM2.5、ρ_PM1/ρ_PM2.5和ρ_PM2.5/ρ_PM10)。其次,针对f因子单变量广义可加模型(GAM)的分析结果表明,RH虽然是f因子的决定性影响因素,但f因子与其他解释变量,尤其是ρ_BC也呈显著非线性关系(均通过α=0.01的显著性检验)。最后,以RH、ρ_BC、ρ_BC/ρ_PM2.5、ρ_PM1/ρ_PM2.5和ρ_PM2.5/ρ_PM10为自变量构建了f因子多变量影响的GAM模型,其对应的调整后的判定系数和压轴回归决定系数分别为0.787和0.797,气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子的模拟效果得到显著提升。

关键词: 气溶胶, 散射吸湿增长因子, 光学综合法, GAM模型, 成都

Abstract: Based on the hourly observation data of "dry" aerosol scattering coefficient and absorption coefficient, as well as the simultaneous monitoring data including visibility (V), relative humidity (RH), and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) during October to December 2017 in Chengdu, aerosol scattering hygroscopic growth factor (f) was calculated by optical synthesis method, and then the complex response-relationship of f to synergistic action between RH and aerosol components was further investigated. Firstly, there were strong multicollinearity among different indicators including RH, ρ_BC, ρ_BC/ρ_PM1, ρ_BC/ρ_PM2.5, ρ_BC/ρ_PM10, ρ_PM1/ρ_PM2.5, ρ_PM1/ρ_PM10, and ρ_PM2.5/ρ_PM10 by using the method of correlation analysis combined with variance inflation factor (ρ_BC, ρ_PM1, ρ_PM2.5 and ρ_PM10 represent mass concentrations of BC, PM₁, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀, respectively). Subsequently, the explanatory variable set of f which included RH, ρ_BC, ρ_BC/PM_2.5, ρ_PM1/ρ_PM2.5, and ρ_PM2.5/ρ_PM10 were obtained. Secondly, the diagnostic results of f single-variable by adopting generalized additive model (GAM) validated that although RH was the decisive influencing factor of f, f also had significant nonlinear relationship with other explanatory variables (all passed the significance test of α=0.01), especially ρ_BC. Finally, the model of the multivariable influence factors of f were constructed based on GAM and the corresponding independent variables including RH, ρ_BC, ρ_BC/ρ_PM2.5, ρ_PM1/ρ_PM2.5 and ρ_PM2.5/ρ_PM10, respectively. The corresponding adjustment determination coefficient (R²) and the determination coefficient of reduced major axis regression were 0.787 and 0.797, respectively, which significantly improved the simulation effect of aerosol scattering hygroscopic growth factor.

Key words: aerosol, scattering hygroscopic growth factor, optic synthesis method, generalized additive model, Chengdu

中图分类号:

X513

佟景哲, 倪长健, 杜云松, 陈云强, 张城语. 成都气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子多变量影响分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2022, 38(5): 636-644.

TONG Jing-zhe, NI Chang-jian, DU Yun-song, CHEN Yun-qiang, ZHANG Cheng-yu. Impact Analysis of Multivariable of Aerosol Scattering Hygroscopic Growth Factor in Chengdu[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2022, 38(5): 636-644.

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