大都市郊区土地利用变化对碳储量时空格局影响研究:以武汉市黄陂区为例

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2022.0332

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了探究土地利用与碳储量的关系,提升区域固碳能力,以大都市郊区武汉市黄陂区为研究对象,采用Markov-FLUS耦合模型模拟自然发展情景、经济优先发展情景和综合发展情景下的土地利用变化,并运用InVEST模型定量研究不同情景下土地利用变化对碳储量的影响。结果发现:2000-2020年黄陂区耕地和林地分别减少63.916和3.549 km²,建设用地和水域分别增加63.826和5.406 km²。区域土地利用变化剧烈,转移地类面积为76.041 km²,其中耕地转出面积达64.486 km²。2000-2020年黄陂区碳储量减少4.27 Tg,尤其是2010-2015年减少量最多,但整体上生态底色良好,地均碳密度较高。3种情景下耕地转向建设用地依然是区域碳储量减少的最主要原因,但综合发展情景下减少量最小。1 km×1 km尺度下土地利用强度与碳储量的莫兰指数呈现显著负相关关系,而局部自相关分析表明综合发展情景下两者协同发展的栅格占比最多。据此提出大都市郊区在未来开发建设过程中要坚守生态安全底线,减缓碳储量的快速流失,走高质量发展之路。

关键词: 大都市郊区, 土地利用变化, 碳储量, Markov-FLUS模型, 土地利用强度

Abstract: In order to explore the relationship between land use and carbon storage, and to improve the regional carbon sequestration capacity, Huangpi District, Wuhan, a metropolitan suburb was taken as the research object. The Markov-FLUS coupling model was used to simulate the land use change under the natural development scenario, the economic priority development scenario and the comprehensive development scenario, and the InVEST model was applied to quantitatively study the effect of land use change on carbon storage under different scenarios. The results show that, from 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land and forest land in Huangpi District decreased by 63.916 and 3.549 km², respectively, while the construction land and water area increased by 63.826 and 5.406 km², respectively. The regional land use changes drastically, and the total area of transferred land is 76.041 km², of which the transferred out area of cultivated land is 64.486 km². From 2000 to 2020 (especially from 2010 to 2015), the carbon storage in Huangpi District decreased by 4.27 Tg, but the overall ecological background was good, and the average land carbon density was high. The conversion of cultivated land to construction land under the three scenarios is still the main reason for the reduction of regional carbon storage, but the reduction is the smallest under the comprehensive development scenario. The Moran index of land use intensity and carbon storage at a scale of 1 km×1 km showed a significant negative correlation, and the local autocorrelation showed that the two synergies accounted for the largest proportion under the comprehensive development scenario. These findings indicate that the suburbs of the metropolis should adhere to the bottom line of ecological security in the future development and construction process, so as to slow down the rapid loss of carbon storage and take the path of high-quality development.

Key words: metropolitan suburbs, land use change, carbon storage, Markov-FLUS model, land use intensity

中图分类号:

X524
X171.1

张斌, 夏秋月, 董捷, 李璐. 大都市郊区土地利用变化对碳储量时空格局影响研究:以武汉市黄陂区为例[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2023, 39(6): 699-712.

ZHANG Bin, XIA Qiu-yue, DONG Jie, LI Lu. Research on the Impact of Land Use Change on the Spatio-temporal Pattern of Carbon Storage in Metropolitan Suburbs: Taking Huangpi District of Wuhan City as an Example[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2023, 39(6): 699-712.

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