关键词: 生态足迹, 生态承载力, 可持续发展, 喀斯特, 趋势预测

Abstract: Land degradation and human-land conflict are getting more and more serious in the karst region,northwest Guangxi and sustainable development of the region is faced with severe challenges. The ecological footprint method was used to quantitatively analyze the status of sustainable development of Hechi,a region cited for case study in the karst region,and the GM (1,1) model to predict the ecological footprint and eco-capacity per capita of the region. Results show that in the period of 1985-2006,its eco-footprint nearly doubled,while eco-capacity decreased by 12.6%,turning eco-surplus into eco-deficit,which is a symbol of unsustainability. However,in the period of 1990-2001,its eco-footprint increased by 120.76%. But the rising trend began to level off after 2001. Analysis of composition of the eco-footprint indicates that cultivated land and grassland were developed the most,and grassland footprint changed the most vigorously,rising from 12.88% up to 30.12%. The prediction reveals that in the next 9 years its eco-footprint will keep on rising and so will its eco-deficit.

Key words: ecology footprint, ecology capacity, sustainable development, karst, trend prediction