基于生态足迹改进模型的叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全评价

doi:10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.09.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于生态系统服务理论改进生态足迹模型核算新疆叶尔羌河平原绿洲区域生态足迹（EF）和生态承载力（EC），通过生态赤字/盈余判断区域生产消费模式，并借助万元GDP生态足迹反映区域资源利用效率；利用生态压力指数（ETI）定量评价区域生态安全状态，并采用GM （1，1）模型预测其变化趋势。结果表明，近25 a叶尔羌河平原绿洲EF不断增大，年均增长率为15.45%，EC总体呈减小趋势，区域生产消费仍处于可持续发展模式，但生态盈余不断减少，由18 969.45×10³ hm²减少到5 636.25×10³ hm²，减少70.29%。区域资源利用效率不断提高，万元GDP生态足迹由17.59 hm²·万元^-1减至4.61 hm²·万元^-1；ETI不断增大，生态安全等级已由1级演变为2级，但目前研究区生态环境仍处于安全状态。各县域生态安全差别较大，以2016年为例，泽普和叶城县处于极不安全状态，巴楚县则处于很安全状态。GM （1，1）模型预测结果表明，未来30 a，区域EF将不断增大，EC不断减小，生态盈余也转为生态赤字，至2048年区域生态安全将恶化为极不安全。建议叶尔羌河平原绿洲的生产活动应着重保护水域生态系统，遏制草地、耕地的过度消费，以保证区域生产消费的可持续发展。

关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 生态足迹, 生态安全, 叶尔羌河平原绿洲

Abstract:

By using improved ecological footprint model based on ecosystem service theory regional ecological footprint (EF) and ecological capacity (EC) in Yarkant river plain oasis, Xinjiang were calculated. Regional production and consumption patterns were judged by ecological deficit/surplus and the efficiency of regional resources utilization was reflected by ecological footprint of per 10 000 yuan GDP. The ecological tension index (ETI) was introduced to quantitatively evaluate the regional ecological security and its changing trend was forecasted by using GM(1,1) model. The results show that:The ecological footprint of the Yarkant river plain oasis increased in the past 25 years with an average annual growth rate of 15.45%. The ecological capacity showed a decreasing trend in general. Regional production and consumption were still in the mode of sustainable development while the ecological surplus decreased from 18 969.45×10³ to 5 636.25×10³ hm², with reduction rate of 70.29%. The efficiency of resource utilization improved continuously and the ecological footprint of per 10 000 yuan GDP reduced from 17.59 to 4.61 hm². The ecological tension index increased and the level of ecological security changed from 1 to 2, though the ecological environment of the study area was still in a safe state. There were great differences among counties in ecological security. In 2016, as an example, ecological security of Zepu and Yecheng Counties was extremely unsafe but Bachu County was in a very safe state. According to the predicting results of GM(1,1), in the next 30 years, EF will increase and EC will decrease and ecological surplus will turn into ecological deficit. By 2048, regional ecological security will deteriorate to extremely unsafe. It is suggested that the production activities of Yarkant river plain oasis should be focused on the protection of the aquatic ecosystem, curb of excessive consumption of grassland and cultivated land, so as to ensure the sustainable development of regional production and consumption.

Key words: ecosystem service value, ecological footprint, ecological security, Yarkant river plain oasis

中图分类号:

X826

张雪琪, 满苏尔·沙比提, 马国飞. 基于生态足迹改进模型的叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全评价[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2018, 34(9): 840-849.

ZHANG Xue-qi, MANSUR·Shabiti, MA Guo-fei. Appraisal of Ecological Security Based on Improved Ecological Footprint Model in Yarkant River Plain Oasis[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2018, 34(9): 840-849.

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