基于Maxent模型和GIS的马缨丹在中国的适生区预测

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2019.0956

Abstract

Abstract: As one of the 100 most destructive invasive global species, Lantana camara has seriously endangered the biodiversity in some areas of southern China. Based on 479 distribution record points, bioclimatic variables and topographic factors of Lantana camara in China, its potential suitable distribution area in China has been predicted by maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (GIS). The results show that: (1) Taking the Qin Ling-Huai He line as the boundary, the suitable distribution areas of Lantana camara are mainly distributed in southern China, in which Guangdong, Guangxi, Hong Kong, Fujian, Hainan and southwestern Yunnan belong to the highly suitable distribution areas of Lantana camara, and the areas accounts for 8.6% of the national land surface; Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan and Chongqing and other areas belong to moderate growth areas, accounting for 10.1% of the national land surface; The proportion of low-adaptive area and non-suitable distribution area accounted for 27.8% and 53.5% of the national land surface, respectively. Under the projected future climate scenario of 2040-2060, the total suitable distribution area of Lantana camara would increase by 1.6 percentage point compared with 1970-2000. (2) The main climatic factor affecting the distribution of Lantana camara is the lowest temperature in the coldest month, followed by the seasonal variation coefficient of temperature and the average annual precipitation. (3) Calculated by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), the average value of the area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.953 and the standard deviation was 0.006, which indicate that the Maxent model is reliable in predicting the suitable distribution area of Lantana camara. The invasion and spread of Lantana camara in China has not yet reached the maximum range of the predicted suitable zone, and it is still possible to continue to spread.

Key words: potential distribution, maximum entropy, geographic information system, jackknife

CLC Number:

S451
K909

ZHANG Hua-wei, ZHAO Jian, YAN Bo-jie, ZOU Jie, LI Zhi-peng. Prediction ofPotential Geographic Distribution of Lantana camara in China Using Maxent Model and GIS[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2020, 36(11): 1420-1427.

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Prediction ofPotential Geographic Distribution of Lantana camara in China Using Maxent Model and GIS

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