基于脱钩理论的城市化水平与耕地安全水平的近程耦合关系研究

doi:10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2017.11.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前我国快速城市化推进对半城市化、农村等近程区域分布的耕地产生直接、强烈的影响，也对耕地安全造成强大的胁迫效应。为此，构建城市化-耕地安全综合评价指标体系，分别计算城市化指数和耕地安全胁迫指数，并基于脱钩理论方法对城市化水平与耕地安全水平的近程耦合关系进行量化分析。以江苏省连云港市为例，定量分析2000-2014年间其城市化水平与耕地安全的脱钩-耦合关系及耕地安全对城市化进程的响应程度。结果表明，2000-2014年间，连云港市城市化指数持续增高，耕地安全胁迫指数波动降低；2000-2007年为强脱钩、弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩及扩张脱钩的波动状态；2008-2014年呈更加强烈的波动状态，包括2008-2012年的强脱钩和2013年的扩张负脱钩状态，这反映出区域发展规划、土地利用规划和城市总体规划的实施对这一典型近程耦合系统产生了较大影响。研究期内连云港市城市化水平大幅提高，耕地安全所受胁迫程度不断降低，两者虽总体呈强脱钩关系，但仍需注意近程耦合结果波动性较大所揭示的不确定性问题，需要谨慎权衡城市化相关政策对耕地安全的影响。与过去的宏观、单一指标模型相比，基于近程耦合关系提出的多指标脱钩-耦合模型更具综合性，能更加全面、精细化分析快速城市化进程与耕地安全保护之间的复杂关系，为半城市化地区景观安全格局评估提供支撑，为城市化与耕地保护之间的协调发展提供决策支持。

关键词: 近程耦合, 城市化, 耕地安全, 脱钩, 连云港

Abstract:

The current rapid development of urbanization in China has directly and seriously affected farmlands distribution in its para-urbanized neighboring/adjacent regions, and also posed severe stresses on safety of these land. It is, therefore, essential to build up a comprehensive urbanization and farmland safety assessment indicator system, work out quantitatively urbanization index and farmland safety stress index, and analyze quantitatively neighboring coupling relations between urbanization and arable land safety based on the decoupling theory and method. A case study was conducted of Lianyungang City of Jiangsu Province to explore quantitatively coupling-decoupling relationship between urbanization and farmland safety and response of farmland safety to the progress of urbanization during the period from 2000 to 2014. Results show that during the study period, urbanization index of Lianyungang City increased steadily, while farmland safety stress index fluctuated with a declining trend. Their relationship displayed a wavy trend from 2000 to 2007, i.e. strong decoupling-weak decoupling-expanding negative decoupling-expanding connection and a strong fluctuation curve from 2008 to 2014, including strong decoupling during 2008-2012 and expanding negative decoupling in 2013, which reflects strong impacts of the implementation of the regional development, land use and city overall programs on this typical neighboring/adjacent coupling system. During the study period, Lianyungang City made a huge and steady progress in urbanization, while reducing fluctuation of its stress on farmland safety. Though the two posed a strong decoupling relationship, the problem of uncertainty reflected in the huge fluctuation of the result of the neighboring/adjacent decoupling calls for high attention, and the influence urbanization had on farmland safety needs to be weighed prudently. Compared to the macroscopic single indicator models used in the past, the multi-index decoupling-coupling model built for the neighboring coupling relationship is more comprehensive and capable of analyzing the complex relationship between rapid urbanization and protection of farmland safety in a more holistic and finer way. Furthermore, it may provide theoretical support to landscape safety assessment of para-urbanizd regions and to decision-making on harmonized development of both urbanization and protection of farmland.

Key words: neighboring/adjacent coupling, urbanization, arable land safety, decoupling, Lianyungang City

中图分类号:

F293.2
X22

陆文勋, 李峥, 孙鹏举, 蔡志毅, 李杨帆, 郭青海. 基于脱钩理论的城市化水平与耕地安全水平的近程耦合关系研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2017, 33(11): 968-974.

LU Wen-xun, LI Zheng, SUN Peng-ju, CAI Zhi-yi, LI Yang-fan, GUO Qing-hai. Neighboring/Adjacent Coupling Relationship Between Urbanization and Farmland Safety Based on the Decoupling Theory[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2017, 33(11): 968-974.

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