滇中城市群土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)空间模拟研究

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2021.0540

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以云南省滇中城市群为研究区域,以2000、2010和2020年的土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)数据为基础,结合相关性分析选择潜在的LUCC驱动因子,构建FLUS模型,模拟研究区内2035年的LUCC,在此基础上分析2000-2035年不同时间段内LUCC时空演变特征和空间格局效应。结果表明:(1)研究区内土地利用类型由耕地、林地和草地主导,整体格局较为稳定,2000-2020年建设用地主要来源于对耕地的大量侵占,2010-2020年变化速率明显比2000-2010年快;(2)根据预测,2020-2035年建设用地主要来源于对林地的侵占,城市扩张有明显的方向性;(3)大部分县(市、区)土地综合利用程度呈上升趋势,部分地区由于退耕还林还草政策的实施,存在着土地利用综合程度下降的现象;利用程度变化热点地区主要集中于中部和东部的县(市、区),呈现出多中心发展的趋势;(4)各地区的景观格局指数变化各有不同,总体来看,景观破碎程度增加、多样性降低。该研究在西部大开发战略和城市化进程加快的背景下,探讨了滇中山地城市群的土地利用特征,模拟了未来的土地利用模式,定量分析了空间格局及其变化效应,对于制定国土空间规划、实现"多规合一"、明确国土空间开发保护目标具有重要意义。

关键词: 滇中城市群, 土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC), 预测模拟, 时空演化, 地学信息图谱, 景观格局

Abstract: Taking the urban agglomeration in Central Yunnan Province as the research area, based on the LUCC data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, combined with correlation analysis, the potential LUCC driving factors were selected to construct the flu model to simulate the LUCC in the study area in 2035. On this basis, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and spatial pattern effects of LUCC in different time periods from 2000 to 2035 are analyzed. The results show that (1) the land use types in the study area are mainly dominated by cultivated land, forest land and grassland, and the overall pattern is relatively stable. From 2000 to 2020, the construction land mainly came from a large amount of occupation of cultivated land, and the change rate from 2010 to 2020 was significantly faster than that from 2000 to 2010; (2) According to the prediction, in the next 15 years from 2020 to 2035, the construction land will mainly come from the occupation of forest land, and the urban expansion has obvious direction; (3) The comprehensive degree of land use in most counties and cities shows an upward trend, and there is a decline in the comprehensive degree of land use in some counties and cities due to the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forest and grassland; The hot spots of utilization degree change are mainly concentrated in the counties and cities in the middle and east, showing a trend of multi-center development; (4) The changes of landscape pattern index in each region are different. On the whole, the degree of landscape fragmentation increases and the diversity decreases. Under the background of western development strategy and accelerated urbanization process, this study discusses the land use characteristics of mountainous urban agglomeration in central Yunnan, simulates the future land use, and quantitatively analyzes the spatial pattern and its change effect, which is of great significance to formulate land space planning, realize "multiple compliance", and clarify the objectives of land space development and protection.

Key words: Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, LUCC, prediction, spatio-temporal evolution, spatial transfer maps, spatial pattern

中图分类号:

X87
TP79

李星, 周京春, 金婷婷, 王金亮. 滇中城市群土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)空间模拟研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2022, 38(10): 1318-1329.

LI Xing, ZHOU Jing-chun, JIN Ting-ting, WANG Jin-liang. LUCC Spatial Simulation of Urban Agglomeration in Central Yunnan[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2022, 38(10): 1318-1329.

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