东盟国家碳排放动态演变及环境库兹涅茨曲线实证检验分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.0685

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 探索东盟国家碳排放的动态演变,并分析碳排放与经济社会发展的定量关系,可为中国-东盟环境等合作提供借鉴参考。基于全球大气研究排放数据库和联合国统计数据库发布的数据,结合曼-肯德尔检验和环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)检验,分析1970-2021年东盟碳排放变化趋势和结构特征等,初步探究东盟各国碳排放达峰情况,并验证东盟国家人均国内生产总值(GDP)与人均碳排放量之间的EKC关系。结果表明,1970-2021年,东盟碳排放总量从1.22×10⁸ t增加到1.74×10⁹ t,印度尼西亚、越南和泰国等排放量居前5位的国家碳排放总量占比近90%。1970-2021年东盟电力、工业燃烧、其他、交通和建筑部门碳排放量分别增加38.0、13.6、12.7、9.1和1.9倍。电力成为东盟碳排放最大的部门,排放占比超40%。以10年为跨度,东盟及各成员国碳排放量多数情况均呈增加趋势。2010年以来的趋势分析显示,文莱和泰国碳排放或将成为东盟最早实现碳达峰的国家。除文莱外,东盟其余国家人均碳排放量与人均GDP的EKC曲线拟合程度均较高。经济社会发展对碳排放的作用表现为促进-抑制-促进,且不同国家出现的拐点值不同。因此,建议我国与东盟国家加强清洁能源电力合作,并加大环保投入、保持环境政策连续性。

关键词: 东盟, 碳排放动态演变, 环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)检验

Abstract: Studying on the dynamic change of carbon emissions in ASEAN member states and analyzing the quantitative relationship between carbon emissions and socioeconomic development can provide a scientific support for China-ASEAN environmental cooperation and other issues. Based on the time series data released by EDGAR and UN Data, the study analyzed the emission structure and trend of ASEAN's carbon emissions. Furthermore, the Mann-Kendall trend test was adopted to explore the carbon peaking situation in ASEAN member states. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model was applied to test the relationship between ASEAN member states' per capita carbon emissions and GDP per capita. The results show that: From 1970 to 2021, the total carbon emissions of the ASEAN increased from 1.22×10⁸ t to 1.74×10⁹ t. The top five emitters, including Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, accounted for nearly 90% of the total carbon emissions. From 1970 to 2021, the carbon emissions of the power, industrial combustion, others, transportation and building sectors in ASEAN increased by 38.0, 13.6, 12.7, 9.1 and 1.9 times, respectively. The power sector is the primary source of carbon emissions in ASEAN, accounting for more than 40% of total emission. Over the years from 1970 to 2021, the carbon emissions of ASEAN and its member countries have mostly shown an increasing trend every decade. The trend analysis result since 2010 show that Brunei and Thailand may be the earliest ASEAN states to peak carbon emissions. Except Brunei the EKC curves for per capita carbon emissions and GDP per capita are highly parallel for ASEAN member countries. The impact of socioeconomic development on carbon emissions follows the mode of "facilitating-suppressing-facilitating", with different inflection points in different countries. Therefore, it is recommended that China to strengthen cooperation in clean energy and power sector with ASEAN member states, as well as maintain continuous investment and policy continuity in environment protection.

Key words: ASEAN, dynamic change of carbon emissions, environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) test

中图分类号:

X321

蓝艳, 花瑞祥, 景宜然, 贾惜春, 李嘉文. 东盟国家碳排放动态演变及环境库兹涅茨曲线实证检验分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2024, 40(3): 303-312.

LAN Yan, HUA Rui-xiang, JING Yi-ran, JIA Xi-chun, LI Jia-wen. Dynamic Change of Carbon Emissions and Environmental Kuznets Curve Empirical Test Analysis in the ASEAN[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2024, 40(3): 303-312.

参考文献

[1] LOTZE H K,TITTENSOR D P,BRYNDUM-BUCHHOLZ A,et al.Global Ensemble Projections Reveal Trophic Amplification of Ocean Biomass Declines with Climate Change[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2019,116(26):12907-12912.
[2] HSIAO S C,CHIANG W S,JANG J H,et al.Flood Risk Influenced by the Compound Effect of Storm Surge and Rainfall under Climate Change for Low-lying Coastal Areas[J].Science of the Total Environment,2021,764:144439.
[3] 蔡闻佳,张弛,张诗卉,等.把握机会窗口期减缓气候变化对中国居民健康影响[J].科学通报,2023,68(15):1899-1905.[CAI Wen-jia,ZHANG Chi,ZHANG Shi-hui,et al.Seizing the Window of Opportunity to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on the Health of Chinese Residents［J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2023,68(15):1899-1905.］
[4] KAHN M E,MOHADDES K,NG R N C,et al.Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change:A Cross-country Analysis[J].Energy Economics,2021,104:105624.
[5] 王文涛,刘燕华,于宏源.全球气候变化与能源安全的地缘政治[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1259-1267.[WANG Wen-tao,LIU Yan-hua,YU Hong-yuan.The Geopolitical Pattern of Global Climate Change and Energy Security Issues［J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(9):1259-1267.］
[6] 张永香,巢清尘,李婧华,等.气候变化科学评估与全球治理博弈的中国启示[J].科学通报,2018,63(23):2313-2319.[ZHANG Yong-xiang,CHAO Qing-chen,LI Jing-hua,et al.Lessons China Can Learn from the Interactions between Climate Change Research and Governance［J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2018,63(23):2313-2319.］
[7] WANG B,CUI C Q,ZHAO Y X,et al.Carbon Emissions Accounting for China's Coal Mining Sector:Invisible Sources of Climate Change[J].Natural Hazards,2019,99(3):1345-1364.
[8] ROGELJ J,FORSTER P M,KRIEGLER E,et al.Estimating and Tracking the Remaining Carbon Budget for Stringent Climate Targets[J].Nature,2019,571:335-342.
[9] 颜伟,黄亚茹,张晓莹,等.基于STIRPAT模型的山东半岛蓝色经济区碳排放预测[J].济南大学学报(自然科学版),2021,35(2):125-131.[YAN Wei,HUANG Ya-ru,ZHANG Xiao-ying,et al.Prediction of Carbon Emission in Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone Based on STIRPAT Model［J].Journal of University of Jinan (Science and Technology),2021,35(2):125-131.］
[10] 王淑芳,焦翠翠,胡伟,等.中国境外经贸合作区本地嵌入程度及影响因素:以东南亚地区为例[J].经济地理,2023,43(4):96-104.[WANG Shu-fang,JIAO Cui-cui,HU Wei,et al.The Local Embeddedness and Influencing Factors of China's Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones:Taking Southeast Asia for Example［J].Economic Geography,2023,43(4):96-104.］
[11] 花瑞祥,蓝艳.中国与东盟贸易的环境效应及其关键社会经济因子影响分析[J].环境科学研究,2020,33(9):2210-2218.[HUA Rui-xiang,LAN Yan.Environmental Effect of Free Trade between China and ASEAN and Impact Analysis of Key Socio-economic Factors［J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2020,33(9):2210-2218.］
[12] TEBOURBI I,NGUYEN A T T,YUAN S F,et al.How Do Social and Economic Factors Affect Carbon Emissions? New Evidence from Five ASEAN Developing Countries[J].Economic Research-ekonomska Istraživanja,2023,36(1):1-24.
[13] OVERLAND I,SAGBAKKEN H F,CHAN H Y,et al.The ASEAN Climate and Energy Paradox[J].Energy and Climate Change,2021,2:100019.
[14] DING D K,BEH S E.Climate Change and Sustainability in ASEAN Countries[J].Sustainability,2022,14(2):999.
[15] NATHANIEL S,KHAN S A R.The Nexus between Urbanization,Renewable Energy,Trade,and Ecological Footprint in ASEAN Countries[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2020,272:122709.
[16] MUSTAPA S I,AYODELE F O,AYODELE B V,et al.Nexus between Energy Usability,Economic Indicators and Environmental Sustainability in Four ASEAN Countries:A Non-linear Autoregressive Exogenous Neural Network Modelling Approach[J].Processes,2020,8(12):1529.
[17] GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Economic Growth and the Environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[18] FONG L S,SALüO A,TAYLOR D.Evidence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Atmospheric Pollutant Emissions in Southeast Asia and Implications for Sustainable Development:A Spatial Econometric Approach[J].Sustainable Development,2020,28(5):1441-1456.
[19] 王志华,温宗国,闫芳,等.北京环境库兹涅茨曲线假设的验证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,17(2):40-47.[WANG Zhi-hua,WEN Zong-guo,YAN Fang,et al.Verifying the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis and Its Conditions in Beijing［J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2007,17(2):40-47.］
[20] 任秋月.东盟国家经济增长与碳排放关系研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2016.[REN Qiu-yue.Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Carbon Emission in ASEAN Countries［D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2016.］
[21] 李君,庄国泰.中国农业源主要污染物产生量与经济发展水平的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征分析[J].生态与农村环境学报,2011,27(6):19-25.[LI Jun,ZHUANG Guo-tai.Features of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) of Output of Major Agricultural Pollutants vs economic Development Level in China［J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2011,27(6):19-25.］
[22] 邬娜,傅泽强,王艳华,等."一带一路"沿线国家碳排放EKC检验及脱钩关系分析[J].环境工程技术学报,2018,8(6):671-678.[WU Na,FU Ze-qiang,WANG Yan-hua,et al.EKC Test and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Countries along the "One Belt and One Road"［J].Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2018,8(6):671-678.］
[23] BIBI F,JAMIL M.Testing Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis in Different Regions[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2021,28(11):13581-13594.
[24] 李达,林龙圳,林震,等.黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的EKC检验[J].生态学报,2021,41(10):3965-3974.[LI Da,LIN Long-zhen,LIN Zhen,et al.EKC Test of Ecological Protection and High-quality Development in the Yellow River Basin［J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2021,41(10):3965-3974.］
[25] GENÇ M C,EKINCI A,SAKARYA B.The Impact of Output Volatility on CO₂ Emissions in Turkey:Testing EKC Hypothesis with Fourier Stationarity Test[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2022,29(2):3008-3021.
[26] 赵先超,宋丽美.湖南省农地利用碳排放与农业经济关系研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2018,34(11):976-981.[ZHAO Xian-chao,SONG Li-mei.Carbon Emission from Agricultural Land Use and Its Relationship with Agricultural Economy in Hunan Province［J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2018,34(11):976-981.］
[27] KOC S,BULUS G C.Testing Validity of the EKC Hypothesis in South Korea:Role of Renewable Energy and Trade Openness[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2020,27(23):29043-29054.
[28] CRIPPA M,GUIZZARDI D,BANJA M,et al.CO₂ Emissions of All World Countries:JRC/IEA/PBL 2022 Report[R].Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union,2022.
[29] 马心怡,黄文晶,胡凝,等.基于不同排放清单的长三角人为CO₂排放模拟[J].环境科学,2023,44(4):2009-2021.[MA Xin-yi,HUANG Wen-jing,HU Ning,et al.Simulation of Anthropogenic CO₂ Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Different Emission Inventories［J].Environmental Science,2023,44(4):2009-2021.］
[30] 吴长兰,王东,苏彦涛.广东省市域碳排放时空分异特征及影响因素:基于EDGAR数据的分析[J].地域研究与开发,2020,39(1):127-132,151.[WU Zhang-lan,WANG Dong,SU Yan-tao.Study on Spatial-temporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Urban Carbon Emissions in Guangdong Province Based on EDGAR Data［J].Areal Research and Development,2020,39(1):127-132,151.］
[31] SOLAZZO E,CRIPPA M,GUIZZARDI D,et al.Uncertainties in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) Emission Inventory of Greenhouse Gases[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2021,21(7):5655-5683.
[32] OREGGIONI G D,MONFORTI FERRAIO F,CRIPPA M,et al.Climate Change in a Changing World:Socio-economic and Technological Transitions,Regulatory Frameworks and Trends on Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions from EDGAR V.5.0[J].Global Environmental Change,2021,70:102350.
[33] GOW N A R,JOHNSON C,BERMAN J,et al.The Importance of Antimicrobial Resistance in Medical Mycology[J].Nature Communications,2022,13:5352.
[34] BAO Z X,ZHANG J Y,WANG G Q,et al.The Impact of Climate Variability and Land Use/Cover Change on the Water Balance in the Middle Yellow River Basin,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2019,577:123942.
[35] 杨青林,赵荣钦,胡月明,等.京津冀地区经济社会要素与碳排放的时空耦合关系[J].生态学报,2023,43(9):3458-3472.[YANG Qing-lin,ZHAO Rong-qin,HU Yu-ming,et al.Spatial-temporal Coupling Relationship between Economic and Social Factors and Carbon Emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region［J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2023,43(9):3458-3472.］
[36] 李莉,董棒棒,敬盼.环境规制背景下新疆能源碳排放峰值预测与情景模拟研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2020,36(11):1444-1452.[LI Li,DONG Bang-bang,JING Pan.Prediction and Scenario Simulation of Energy Carbon Emission Peak in Xinjiang under the Background of Environmental Regulation［J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2020,36(11):1444-1452.］
[37] SALMAN M,LONG X L,DAUDA L,et al.Different Impacts of Export and Import on Carbon Emissions across 7 ASEAN Countries:A Panel Quantile Regression Approach[J].Science of the Total Environment,2019,686:1019-1029.
[38] SU B,ANG B W,LI Y Z.Input-output and Structural Decomposition Analysis of Singapore's Carbon Emissions[J].Energy Policy,2017,105:484-492.
[39] RAMBELI N,MARIKAN D A A,HASHIM E,et al.The Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Malaysia and Singapore[J].Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia,2021,55(2):107-119.
[40] HEIDARI H,TURAN KATIRCIOĞLU S,SAEIDPOUR L.Economic Growth,CO₂ Emissions,and Energy Consumption in the Five ASEAN Countries[J].International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems,2015,64:785-791.