关键词: 气候变化, 丹顶鹤, 最大熵模型, 繁殖, 分布区

Abstract: Trend of the impact of climate change on scope and spatial pattern of the distribution of breeding sites of red-crowned crane(Grus japonensis) in Northeast China was simulated and hence predicted using the maximum entropy model in combination with the general circulation model and the two climate scenarios(A2 and B2) recently published by the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).Results show that in either scenario,the climate change will lead to steadily shrinkage of the suitable nesting area for the birds and shift of the birds′ core distribution area towards west and north.The change is very obvious in the three provinces of Northeast China.The east part of Inner Mongolia will become a major place of habitat for the red-crowned cranes.It is,therefore,suggested that a complete reliable set of systems be established as soon as possible for monitoring distribution of the red-crowned cranes in China,and that greater efforts be done to restore the wetlands in that region by replenishing them with water to conserve the breeding grounds of the birds.

Key words: climate change, red-crowned crane, maximum entropy model(MAXENT), breeding, range of distribution