基于生态足迹改进模型的叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全评价

doi:10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.09.010

Abstract

Abstract:

By using improved ecological footprint model based on ecosystem service theory regional ecological footprint (EF) and ecological capacity (EC) in Yarkant river plain oasis, Xinjiang were calculated. Regional production and consumption patterns were judged by ecological deficit/surplus and the efficiency of regional resources utilization was reflected by ecological footprint of per 10 000 yuan GDP. The ecological tension index (ETI) was introduced to quantitatively evaluate the regional ecological security and its changing trend was forecasted by using GM(1,1) model. The results show that:The ecological footprint of the Yarkant river plain oasis increased in the past 25 years with an average annual growth rate of 15.45%. The ecological capacity showed a decreasing trend in general. Regional production and consumption were still in the mode of sustainable development while the ecological surplus decreased from 18 969.45×10³ to 5 636.25×10³ hm², with reduction rate of 70.29%. The efficiency of resource utilization improved continuously and the ecological footprint of per 10 000 yuan GDP reduced from 17.59 to 4.61 hm². The ecological tension index increased and the level of ecological security changed from 1 to 2, though the ecological environment of the study area was still in a safe state. There were great differences among counties in ecological security. In 2016, as an example, ecological security of Zepu and Yecheng Counties was extremely unsafe but Bachu County was in a very safe state. According to the predicting results of GM(1,1), in the next 30 years, EF will increase and EC will decrease and ecological surplus will turn into ecological deficit. By 2048, regional ecological security will deteriorate to extremely unsafe. It is suggested that the production activities of Yarkant river plain oasis should be focused on the protection of the aquatic ecosystem, curb of excessive consumption of grassland and cultivated land, so as to ensure the sustainable development of regional production and consumption.

Key words: ecosystem service value, ecological footprint, ecological security, Yarkant river plain oasis

CLC Number:

X826

ZHANG Xue-qi, MANSUR·Shabiti, MA Guo-fei. Appraisal of Ecological Security Based on Improved Ecological Footprint Model in Yarkant River Plain Oasis[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2018, 34(9): 840-849.

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Appraisal of Ecological Security Based on Improved Ecological Footprint Model in Yarkant River Plain Oasis

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