黑龙江省大兴安岭重点国有林区复合系统耦合协调发展评价与预测

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2021.0475

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 协调是新发展理念的重要组成部分,推动实现国有林区协调发展是深化国有林区改革发展的主要目标。以黑龙江省大兴安岭重点国有林区为研究对象,构建涵盖资源保育、产业发展、企业管理、民生福祉和支撑保障的复合系统,采用耦合协调模型对2000-2020年研究区复合系统耦合协调状况进行定量评价,并采用灰色马尔科夫模型对2021-2022年复合系统耦合协调发展趋势进行预测,以期为推动国有林区持续深化改革,促进实现全方位和高质量协调发展提供科学依据和理论支撑。结果表明,经过21 a的转型发展,黑龙江省大兴安岭重点国有林区各子系统层发展过程各有差异,其中,民生福祉系统层和资源保育系统层增幅较大,企业管理和支撑保障系统层发展严重滞后;复合系统耦合协调发展阶段由失调阶段转变为协调阶段,但是近年来受政策及新冠肺炎疫情等因素的影响,协调发展水平有所倒退;预测到2022年,复合系统耦合协调发展类型将恢复至良好协调发展,但距离优质协调发展尚有较大差距。建议保持现有扶持政策和投入水平持续稳定,加快补齐企业管理和支撑保障系统层短板,推动黑龙江省大兴安岭重点国有林区步入稳定、高质量耦合协调发展状态。

关键词: 耦合协调度, 评价, 马尔科夫模型, 大兴安岭, 国有林区

Abstract: Coordination is an important part of the new development philosophy. Promoting the coordinated development is the main goal of deepening the reform and development in state-owned forest region. Aiming to provide scientific basis and theoretical supports for promoting the continuous deepening of reform of state-owned forest region and realizing comprehensive and high-quality coordinated development, the key state-owned forest region in Daxing'anling, Heilongjiang Province was chosen as the research object. A compound system covering ecological conservation, industrial development, enterprise management, well-being of the people and support capability was constructed. The coupling coordination model was used to quantitatively evaluate the coupling coordination status of the compound system from 2000 to 2020. The Grey Markov model was used to predict the trend of coupling coordination development in this compound system from 2021 to 2022. Results show that, after 21-year of transformation and development, the development index of each subsystem of state-owned forest region in Daxing'anling, Heilongjiang Province has been changed, however, the process were different among subsystems. The growth rates of the subsystems of well-being of the people and resource conservation have been high, while the subsystems of enterprise management and the support capability have been lagged dramatically behind. The development stage of coupling coordination of the compound system has changed from misalignment to coordination, nevertheless, the coordinated development level was regressive in recent years due to certain factors such as policy, COVID-19, etc. It is predicted that by 2022, the development stage of coupling coordination of compound system will be recovered to the benign coordinated development type, however, there is still a big gap before it reaches the high-quality coordinated development type. It is suggested that the existing support policies and inputs should be kept stable, moreover, the enterprise management and support capability should be strengthened, in order to promote the stable and high-quality coupling coordinated development in the key state-owned forest regions in Daxing'anling, Heilongjiang Province.

Key words: coupling coordination degree, evaluation, Markov model, Daxing'anling, state-owned forest region

中图分类号:

S7-9
F326.23

陈科屹, 何友均, 谢和生, 李艳娟, 赵雨昕. 黑龙江省大兴安岭重点国有林区复合系统耦合协调发展评价与预测[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2022, 38(5): 578-586.

CHEN Ke-yi, HE You-jun, XIE He-sheng, LI Yan-juan, ZHAO Yu-xin. Evaluation and Prediction of Coupling Coordinated Development of Compound System of Key State-owned Forest Region in Daxing'anling, Heilongjiang Province[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2022, 38(5): 578-586.

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