“双碳”目标实现的省域实践：以浙江为例

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.0008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 浙江省实现碳达峰碳中和的目标是贯彻党中央提出的新发展理念、构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的内在要求。研究基于浙江省2000-2019年能源消费等统计数据,以长期能源替代规划系统模型(LEAP)和可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)相结合,识别浙江省碳排放主要影响因素,构建并预测6种不同情景下浙江省2015-2060年的碳排放趋势、达峰时间和减排路径。结果表明,能源结构升级、能效提升和数字经济深耕高碳排放产业是浙江省当前低碳转型发展的关键驱动力。浙江省实现"双碳"目标需要所有终端能源使用部门实现低碳转型,优先考虑电力、工业和交通部门,其次是商业、居民生活、住宅、农业等部门。在各项节能减排举措的综合作用下,部分电力替代(PES)情景和综合电力替代(CES)情景下浙江省碳达峰时间分别为2024和2025年,达峰总量分别为3.88亿和3.70亿 t,可如期实现碳中和。考虑到进行碳统计时存在碳泄漏问题,浙江省应从PES情景出发,力争于2025年达到碳峰值,逐步提升可再生能源在其外购电中的比例,同时发挥数字经济在低碳治理中的作用,采取谨慎的碳中和路径过渡到CES情景,通过各终端能源使用部门利用碳捕捉、碳封存等降碳技术,如期甚至提早实现碳中和。

关键词: 双碳目标, STIRPAT模型, LEAP模型, 减排路径

Abstract: Zhejiang Province's achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality is an internal requirement for implementing the new development concept, building a new development pattern, and promoting high-quality development, as proposed by the central government. Based on statistical data on energy consumption in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2019, a combination of the LEAP model and the STIRPAT model was used as a research tool to identify the main factors influencing carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province and to predict the carbon emission trends, peak time, and emission reduction paths for six different scenarios from 2015 to 2060. The results show that upgrading the energy structure, improving energy efficiency, and deepening the digital economy in high-carbon industries are the key driving forces for Zhejiang Province's current low-carbon transformation and development. To achieve the "Dual-Carbon" target, all end-use energy sectors need to achieve low-carbon transformation, with priority given to the electricity, industry, and transportation sectors, followed by commerce, residential life, housing, agriculture, and other sectors. With the comprehensive effect of various energy-saving and emission reduction measures, the carbon peak time for the Partial Electricity Substitution (PES) scenario and the Comprehensive Electricity Substitution (CES) scenario in Zhejiang Province is 2024 and 2025, respectively, with peak emissions of 388 million and 370 million tons, achieving carbon neutrality as scheduled. Considering the problem of carbon leakage in carbon accounting, Zhejiang Province should start from the PES scenario, strive to reach the carbon peak in 2025, gradually increase the proportion of renewable energy in its purchased electricity, and at the same time, play the role of the digital economy in low-carbon governance. From 2030 to 2035, it should accelerate the transition to the CES scenario, and achieve carbon neutrality as scheduled, or even earlier, by using carbon capture, carbon storage, and other decarbonization technologies in various end-use energy sectors.

Key words: double carbon target, STIRPAT model, LEAP model, emission reduction pathway

中图分类号:

李清瑶, 张勇, 胡民泉, 俞洁. “双碳”目标实现的省域实践：以浙江为例[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2024, 40(2): 191-204.

LI Qing-yao, ZHANG Yong, HU Min-quan, YU Jie. Provincial Practice of Achieving the “Dual Carbon” Target: Taking Zhejiang Province as an Example[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2024, 40(2): 191-204.

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