粮食水资源利用效率及影响因素分析:基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2019.0366

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运用超效率松弛变量（SBM）模型探究2008-2017年中国粮食水资源利用综合效率、纯技术效率和规模效率的时间变化和空间分布，并采用Tobit模型分析自然环境和生产灌溉措施对用水效率的影响。结果表明，中国粮食水资源利用效率尚有很大的提升空间，综合效率和纯技术效率均呈倒"U"型趋势，而规模效率则呈先上升后稳定的趋势。空间分布方面，规模效率呈现出沿海地区高于内陆地区的特征；北部沿海、东北和长江中游粮食主产区水资源利用综合效率较低主要是由于纯技术效率较低所致，黄河中游和西南主产区综合效率较低主要是由于规模效率较低所致。进一步的影响因素分析表明，有效灌溉比例和育种技术发展均对3种效率产生正向影响，农村水源建设则对3种效率具有负向影响；此外，灾害程度对综合效率和规模效率产生负向影响。基于以上结论，对粮食水资源管理政策的实施提出了针对性建议。

关键词: 粮食生产, 水资源利用效率, SBM模型, Tobit模型, 中国

Abstract: Super-efficient SBM model was performed to explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of the comprehensive efficiency, the pure technical efficiency and the scale efficiency of water resources utilization in grain production from 2008 to 2017 in China. Tobit model was applied to examine the impact of natural environment and irrigation strategies on water resources utilization efficiency. The results show that there was still much room for improvement in the water resources utilization efficiency in China. The comprehensive efficiency and pure technical efficiency showed an inverted "U" trend, whereas the scale efficiency showed an increasing trend before 2011, and then maintained stable. The scale efficiency was higher over the coastal areas compared to the inland areas. The low technical efficiency contributed to the low comprehensive efficiency in the main grain-producing areas including the northern coastal region, northeast China and the middle reaches of the Yangtze river, while the low comprehensive efficiency over the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the southwest was mainly due to the low scale efficiency. Both effective irrigation and grain breeding techniques made positive contribution to the three efficiencies, while negative contribution was due to the rural water source construction. Further, the disaster degree also showed a negative impact on the comprehensive efficiency and the scale efficiency. Finally, proposals for improving water resources utilization efficiency are suggested based on our analysis.

Key words: grain production, water resources utilization efficiency, SBM model, Tobit model, China

中图分类号:

F205

常明, 陈思博, 马冰然, 刘莹. 粮食水资源利用效率及影响因素分析:基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2020, 36(2): 145-151.

CHANG Ming, CHEN Si-bo, MA Bing-ran, LIU Ying. Analysis of Water Resources Utilization Efficiency and Its Affecting Factors in Grain Production: An Empirical Research Based on China's Inter-Provincial Panel Data[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2020, 36(2): 145-151.

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