福建省县域森林损失时空演变特征及其影响因素分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.0970

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 森林是陆地生物圈重要的生态资源,厘清区域长期森林损失状况及其影响因素,对森林资源保护和社会经济协调发展具有重要意义。基于全球森林变化(Global Forest Change)数据集,利用ArcGIS 10.8空间分析技术,对2001-2019年福建省58个县域森林损失的时空演变特征进行分析,并结合时空地理加权回归模型,探究县域森林损失的主要影响因素及其时空分异特征。结果表明:(1)2001-2019年福建省县域森林损失率呈波动上升的基本态势,森林损失面积累计达112.89万hm²,森林损失情况可划分为显著上升阶段、先降后升阶段和显著下降阶段。(2)整体上,福建省县域森林损失具有较强的空间正相关性和空间集聚性特征,相邻区域森林损失率的空间相关性显著,而其空间集聚效应呈现西北低、东南高的基本态势。(3)城镇化率、人均GDP、公路通车里程、人口密度和木材产量对福建省县域森林损失均具有一定的影响,但存在明显的时空异质性特征。该研究有效揭示了福建省县域森林损失时空动态特征及其影响因素,可为森林资源可持续经营提供理论依据。

关键词: 森林损失, 时空演变, 影响因素, 时空地理加权回归, 福建省

Abstract: Forests are important ecological resources in the terrestrial biosphere, and clarifying the long-term forest loss status and its influencing factors is of great significance to the protection of forest resources and the coordinated development of social economy. Based on the Global Forest Change dataset, this paper used ArcGIS spatial analysis technology to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of forest loss in the 58 counties in Fujian Province from 2001 to 2019, and used the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Model to explore the main influencing factors of forest loss in the counties, and the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics. The results show that: (1) During 2001-2019, the rate of forest loss in the counties of Fujian Province showed a basic trend of fluctuating increase, and the cumulative area of forest loss amounted to 1 128 900 hm², and the forest loss situation could be divided into three stages: the stage of significant increase, the stage of decline followed by an increase, and the stage of significant decrease. (2) On the whole, forest loss in counties in Fujian Province had strong positive correlation and spatial clustering characteristics. The spatial correlation of forest loss rate among neighboring regions was significant, and the spatial clustering effect showed a basic trend of low in the northwest and high in the southeast. (3) The urbanization rate, per capita GDP, road mileage, population density and timber production all had certain influences on forest loss in the counties in Fujian Province, but there was obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity. This study effectively reveals the spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics and influencing factors of forest loss in the counties of Fujian Province, which can provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable management of forest resources.

Key words: forest loss, spatial and temporal evolution, influencing factors, Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Model, Fujian Province

中图分类号:

X826

朱玮晗, 林金煌, 杨舒棋, 陈梅英, 戴永务, 朱艳萍. 福建省县域森林损失时空演变特征及其影响因素分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2024, 40(4): 499-512.

ZHU Wei-han, LIN Jin-huang, YANG Shu-qi, CHEN Mei-ying, DAI Yong-wu, ZHU Yan-ping. Characterization of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Forest Loss in Counties in Fujian Province and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2024, 40(4): 499-512.

参考文献

[1] CURTIS P G,SLAY C M,HARRIS N L,et al.Classifying Drivers of Global Forest Loss[J].Science,2018,361(6407):1108-1111.
[2] 包蕊,李涛,张欣怡,等.森林生态系统损害评估体系与管理制度研究[J].生态学报,2021,41(3):924-933.[BAO Rui,LI Tao,ZHANG Xin-yi,et al.Study on the Assessment and Management System of Forest Ecosystem Damage［J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2021,41(3):924-933.］
[3] 黄麟.森林管理的生态效应研究进展[J].生态学报,2021,41(10):4226-4239.[HUANG Lin.Research Progress on the Ecological Effects of Forest Management［J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2021,41(10):4226-4239.］
[4] 秦会艳,刘婷婷,黄颖利.我国省域尺度森林生态系统恢复力评价及敏感性分析[J].生态与农村环境学报,2022,38(3):281-288.[QIN Hui-yan,LIU Ting-ting,HUANG Ying-li.Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of Forest Ecosystem Resilience at Provincial Scale in China［J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2022,38(3):281-288.］
[5] 赵青,黄菲,陈晓辉,等.乔木林丧失的时空变化及驱动力分析[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2022,46(2):227-235.[ZHAO Qing,HUANG Fei,CHEN Xiao-hui,et al.Spatio-temporal Variations and a Driving Force Analysis of Arbor Forest Loss［J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences),2022,46(2):227-235.］
[6] ZHU L,LI W,CIAIS P,et al.Comparable Biophysical and Biogeochemical Feedbacks on Warming from Tropical Moist Forest Degradation[J].Nature Geoscience,2023,16:244-249.
[7] LAPOLA D M,PINHO P,BARLOW J,et al.The Drivers and Impacts of Amazon Forest Degradation[J].Science,2023,379(6630):8622.
[8] 刘春兰,陈龙,乔青,等.基于森林资源清查数据的区域生物多样性评价方法:以北京市为例[J].生态与农村环境学报,2017,33(11):1042-1048.[LIU Chun-lan,CHEN Long,QIAO Qing,et al.Evaluation Method of Regional Biodiversity Based on Forest Inventory Data:A Case Study of Beijing［J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2017,33(11):1042-1048.］
[9] 贾松伟.长江流域森林植被碳储量分布特征及动态变化[J].生态与农村环境学报,2018,34(11):997-1002.[JIA Song-wei.Carbon Storage Distribution and Its Dynamic Changes of Forest Vegetation in Yangtze River Basin Based on Continuous Forest Resources Inventory［J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2018,34(11):997-1002.］
[10] SHIMADA M,ITOH T,MOTOOKA T,et al.New Global Forest/Non-forest Maps from ALOS PALSAR Data (2007-2010)[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2014,155:13-31.
[11] HANSEN M C,POTAPOV P V,MOORE R,et al.High-resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change[J].Science,2013,342(6160):850-853.
[12] LI C C,WANG J,HU L Y,et al.A Circa 2010 Thirty Meter Resolution Forest Map for China[J].Remote Sensing,2014,6(6):5325-5343.
[13] 周维,刘国华,段兴武,等.滇金丝猴分布区森林面积变化的时空特征及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2022,42(2):791-803.[ZHOU Wei,LIU Guo-hua,DUAN Xing-wu,et al.Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Forest Area Change and Its Determinants in the Distribution Area of Yunnan Snub-nosed Monkey (Rhinopithecus bieti)［J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2022,42(2):791-803.］
[14] 王淑静,赖佩玉,郝斌飞,等.西南地区2001-2019年森林损失特征遥感监测与时空分析[J].遥感技术与应用,2021,36(3):552-563.[WANG Shu-jing,LAI Pei-yu,HAO Bin-fei,et al.Remote Sensing Monitoring and Spatio-temporal Pattern of Deforestation in Southwest China from 2001 to 2019［J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2021,36(3):552-563.］
[15] 朱洪革,赵文铖,曹博.中国森林损失的时空特征及其与经济增长的EKC关系检验[J].生态经济,2022,38(2):98-103,115.[ZHU Hong-ge,ZHAO Wen-cheng,CAO Bo.Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Forest Loss and EKC Test of Its Relationship with Economic Growth［J].Ecological Economy,2022,38(2):98-103,115.］
[16] YAMADA Y,OHKUBO T,SHIMIZU K.Causal Analysis of Accuracy Obtained Using High-resolution Global Forest Change Data to Identify Forest Loss in Small Forest Plots[J].Remote Sensing,2020,12(15):2489.
[17] 左冰洁,孙玉军.南方亚热带季风区将乐县森林植被动态变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].地球信息科学学报,2019,21(6):958-968.[ZUO Bing-jie,SUN Yu-jun.Forest Vegetation Dynamics and Responses to Climate Change in a Southern Subtropical Monsoon Region in Jangle County［J].Journal of Geo-information Science,2019,21(6):958-968.］
[18] BURRELL A L,SUN Q Q,BAXTER R,et al.Climate Change,Fire Return Intervals and the Growing Risk of Permanent Forest Loss in Boreal Eurasia[J].The Science of the Total Environment,2022,831:154885.
[19] HAUGHAN A E,PETTORELLI N,POTTS S G,et al.Determining the Role of Climate Change in India's Past Forest Loss[J].Global Change Biology,2022,28(12):3883-3901.
[20] POWLEN K A,SALERNO J,JONES K W,et al. Identifying Socioeconomic and Biophysical Factors Driving Forest Loss in Protected Areas[J].Conservation Biology,2023,37(4):e14058.
[21] LIN Y Y,QIU R Z,YAO J X,et al.The Effects of Urbanization on China's Forest Loss from 2000 to 2012:Evidence from a Panel Analysis[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2019,214:270-278.
[22] 赵晓迪,李凌超,杨文涛,等.福建省县域森林转型社会经济影响因素分析[J].林业科学,2019,55(8):147-156.[ZHAO Xiao-di,LI Ling-chao,YANG Wen-tao,et al.Analysis of Socio-economic Influencing Factors of Forest Transition in Counties of Fujian Province［J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2019,55(8):147-156.］
[23] 杜林翰,吴志伟,巫清芸,等.中国南部生态区森林损失与火灾的时空关联特征[J].西南林业大学学报(自然科学),2022,42(3):138-147.[DU Lin-han,WU Zhi-wei,WU Qing-yun,et al.Temporal and Spatial Correlation between Forest Loss and Forest Fire in the Ecological Region of Southern China［J].Journal of Southwest Forestry University (Natural Sciences),2022,42(3):138-147.］
[24] 单保君,张治军,王秋华,等.1996-2013年火灾对中国森林碳汇损失估算的研究[J].西南林业大学学报(自然科学),2017,37(6):156-162.[SHAN Bao-jun,ZHANG Zhi-jun,WANG Qiu-hua,et al.Estimation of Forest Carbon Sinks Loss Caused by Fire in China during 1996-2013［J].Journal of Southwest Forestry University (Natural Sciences),2017,37(6):156-162.］
[25] DA PONTE E,ALCASENA F,BHAGWAT T,et al.Assessing Wildfire Activity and Forest Loss in Protected Areas of the Amazon Basin[J].Applied Geography,2023,157:102970.
[26] SOLÓRZANO J V,MAS J F,GALLARDO-CRUZ J A,et al.Deforestation Detection Using a Spatio-temporal Deep Learning Approach with Synthetic Aperture Radar and Multispectral Images[J].ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing,2023,199:87-101.
[27] 邹航,宋娅丽,王克勤,等.开采对矿区天然森林生态系统碳损失量的影响[J].中国水土保持科学,2022,20(2):124-130.[ZOU Hang,SONG Ya-li,WANG Ke-qin,et al.Effects of Mining on the Carbon Loss of Natural Forest Ecosystem in Mining Area［J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,20(2):124-130.］
[28] GONG C F,YU S X,JOESTING H,et al. Determining Socioeconomic Drivers of Urban Forest Fragmentation with Historical Remote Sensing Images[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2013,117:57-65.
[29] 马伟波,赵立君,王楠,等.长三角城市群减污降碳驱动因素研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2022,38(10):1273-1281.[MA Wei-bo,ZHAO Li-jun,WANG Nan,et al. Study on Driving Factors of Pollution and Carbon Reduction in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations［J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2022,38(10):1273-1281.］
[30] 李晶晶,闫庆武,胡苗苗.基于地理加权回归模型的能源"金三角" 地区植被时空演变及主导因素分析[J].生态与农村环境学报,2018,34(8):700-708.[LI Jing-jing,YAN Qing-wu,HU Miao-miao.Spatial-temporal Evolution of Vegetation and Dominant Factors in "Energy Golden Triangle" Region Based on Geographically Weighted Regression Model［J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2018,34(8):700-708.］
[31] POTAPOV P,TURUBANOVA S,HANSEN M C.Regional-scale Boreal Forest Cover and Change Mapping Using Landsat Data Composites for European Russia[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2011,115(2):548-561.
[32] HUANG B,WU B,BARRY M.Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression for Modeling Spatio-temporal Variation in House Prices[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2010,24(3):383-401.
[33] 李沁玲,阎建忠,程先,等.2001-2018年华北平原森林面积变化及影响因素分析[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2023,45(2):107-124.[LI Qin-ling,YAN Jian-zhong,CHENG Xian,et al. Changes of Forestland Area and Their Influencing Factors in the North China Plain from 2001 to 2018［J].Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition),2023,45(2):107-124.］
[34] 邓祥征,姜群鸥,战金艳,等.中国东北地区森林覆被变化的原因与趋势[J].地理学报,2010,65(2):224-234.[DENG Xiang-zheng,JIANG Qu-nou,ZHAN Jin-yan,et al. Causes and Trends of Forestry Area Change in Northeast China［J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(2):224-234.］
[35] GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement[J].National Bureau of Economic Research,1991,8(2):223-250.
[36] 李凌超,刘金龙,孙伟娜,等.森林转型理论研究进展[J].北京林业大学学报(社会科学版),2016,15(2):54-58.[LI Ling-chao,LIU Jin-long,SUN Wei-na,et al.Research Progress on Forest Transition Theory［J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Sciences),2016,15(2):54-58.］
[37] 李凌超,刘金龙.政策与经济因素在森林转型中的作用:以福建长汀为例[J].林业经济,2015,37(2):100-104.[LI Ling-chao,LIU Jin-long.The Impact of Policy and Economic Factors on Forest Transition:A Case Study of Changting of Fujian［J].Forestry Economics,2015,37(2):100-104.］
[38] 杨萍,张红霄,彭晓民,等.集体林权制度改革对农户造林意愿的影响:基于江西省6个案例村农户调查[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2013,13(3):58-66.[YANG Ping,ZHANG Hong-xiao,PENG Xiao-min,et al.Impact of Collective Forest Tenure Reform on Farmers' Willingness and Action for Afforestation:Based on Case Investigation in Six Villages in Jiangxi Province［J].Journal of Northwest A&F University (Social Science),2013,13(3):58-66.］