干旱区绿洲城市生态系统服务价值空间自相关格局分析与模拟

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2019.0331

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1995-2015年乌鲁木齐土地利用遥感解译数据，运用CA-Markov模型模拟预测2025年土地利用变化并进行生态系统服务价值（ESV）评估，应用格网分析、空间自相关、Getis-Ord热点区分析等空间统计方法，进一步分析生态系统服务价值与土地利用空间格局的分布特征，讨论两者空间自相关关系及年际变化的冷热点空间分布变化原因。结果表明，近30 a研究区各土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值呈波动变化态势，但总体上表现为减少趋势，主要原因在于耕地、林草地提供的生态系统服务价值减少。生态系统服务价值空间分布格局差异明显，高值区域多年来主要分布在乌鲁木齐县林地面积较多的地区，低值区域集中分布于乌鲁木齐中心四区（天山区、沙依巴克区、水磨沟区、头屯河区）的周边区域。研究区生态系统服务价值具有显著的空间正自相关性与空间聚集特征，高-高、低-低聚集分布分别与生态系统服务价值高值、低值区域高度重合。生态系统服务价值热冷点区呈逐年增加趋势，热点区增加与近年来乌鲁木齐大力推行生态保护及修复等措施有极大关联，冷点区增加与城市建成区无序扩张及土地开发等一系列人类活动有密切关系。

关键词: 生态系统服务价值(ESV), CA-Markov, 土地利用, 空间自相关, 格网分析, 乌鲁木齐

Abstract: Based on the land use data extracted from remote sensing interpretation in Urumqi between 1995 and 2015, a prediction for the land use changes for the year 2025 and an ESV (ecosystem service value) assessment have been performed using the CA-Markov model. A further analysis of the distribution characteristics of spatial patterns in the ESV and the land use is made by means of the spatial statistical methods, such as the grid analysis, the spatial autocorrelation and Getis-Ord hot spot analysis. The relationship between the spatial autocorrelation in the ESV and that in the land use as well as the reason for the spatial distribution changes of the cold spots and the hot spots in the interannual variations are discussed. The change process of the high and low ESV values with respect to the center of gravity in the space is interpreted. The results show that:(1) Within the 30 years, certain differences had been presented among the ESV changes in different land use types in different periods, representing a fluctuation trend. However, a decreasing trend in the overall ESV was presented and the main reason for this is the decrease of the ESV provided by the cultivated lands, forests and grasslands. (2) Significant differences exist in the overall spatial distribution pattern of the ESV and, for many years, the areas with a high ESV value have been mainly distributed in the zones with a large woodland area in Urumqi County, while the areas with a low ESV value have been mainly concentrated in the zones that surround the four central districts of Urumqi (Tianshan District, Shaybak District, Shuimogou District and Toutunhe District). (3) The ESV in the study area has significant spatial positive autocorrelation and spatial clustering characteristics, and the high-high and low-low clustered distribution is highly coincident with the high-low ESV value areas. (4) The number of hot and cold spots in the ESV has been increasing year by year. The increase in the quantity of the hot spots is closely related to the ecological protection and restoration measures which Urumqi has vigorously implemented in the recent years. On the other hand, the increase in the quantity of the cold spots is of great concern, and this is closely related to the human activities such as the disorderly spread and expansion of urban built-up areas and land development.

Key words: ecosystem service value (ESV), CA-Markov, land use, spatial autocorrelation, grid analysis, Urumqi

中图分类号:

F062.2
X826

朱增云, 阿里木江·卡斯木. 干旱区绿洲城市生态系统服务价值空间自相关格局分析与模拟[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019, 35(12): 1531-1540.

ZHU Zeng-yun, ALIMUJIANG Kasimu. Analysis and Simulation of the Spatial Autocorrelation Pattern in the Ecosystem Service Value of the Oasis Cities in Dry Areas[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2019, 35(12): 1531-1540.

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