基于结构方程模型的窟野河流域生态安全评估与驱动因素分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2022.0930

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 区域环境的生态安全是城市现代化发展的方向，对区域生态安全的科学认知和对生态安全格局的合理构建，可以有力地促进和提升区域生态安全。目前，对流域生态风险的相关研究主要集中在湿润半湿润地区，对生态风险驱动因素的分析方法以地理探测器居多，研究方法较为单一。以干旱内陆窟野河流域为研究对象，以2000-2020年4期土地利用数据为基础数据源，从景观生态学角度构建生态风险评价模型，采用克里金插值、空间自相关分析等方法定量研究了窟野河流域生态风险的时空演变格局和空间分异特征；采用灰色关联度分析、逐步回归分析和通径分析等方法定量分析了流域范围内一些自然和社会因素对生态风险的综合影响。结果表明：（1）将流域生态风险划分为高、中和低3个等级，整个研究期内高风险区域所占比例均最大，面积占比在40%以上；（2）2000-2020年高生态风险区面积占比由45.95%缓慢降为44.98%，高风险区面积较2000年约减少84.806 km²；（3）流域内生态风险呈现一定程度的高-高聚集空间分异特征（Moran's I为0.333），高风险区域集中分布在流域中心地带，基本上沿流域内水系呈带状分布，且距水系距离越远，生态风险指数越低；（4）降雨量、植被覆盖度和气温是影响流域内生态风险的主要自然因素，直接通径系数分别为-0.479、-0.449和0.383，另外，GDP也是影响区域内生态风险的主要间接因素，总效应系数为-0.49。

关键词: 窟野河流域, 生态风险, 结构方程模型, 灰色关联度, 逐步回归, 通径分析

Abstract: Regional ecological security is the direction of the development of modern cities. Understanding of regional ecological risks and building an ecological security pattern can contribute to the comprehensive improvement of the level of regional ecological security. To date, the study of regional ecological risks are mainly focused on humid and subhumid zones, and the driving factor analysis of regional ecological risks are mainly using geographical detectors, and the research method is relatively single. In this study, Kuye River Basin was taken as the research object, and the land-use database in 2000, 2010, 2013 and 2020 were used as the basic data source, and an ecological risk assessment model was constructed from the perspective of landscape ecology, and the ecological risk of the basin was quantitatively studied by using spatial and temporal evolution patterns coupled with distribution characteristics and driving factors. The results show that:(1) the ecological risk of the river basin is divided into three levels:high, medium and low. The proportion of high-risk areas in the entire study period is the largest, accounting for more than 40% of the area;(2) During the period from 2000 to 2020, the proportion of high ecological risk areas decreased slightly from 45.95% to 44.98%, and the high risk area decreased by approximately 84.806 km²; (3) The ecological risk in the basin presents a certain degree of spatial differentiation characteristics of high-high aggregation (Moran's I=0.333), and the high-risk areas are concentrated in the center of the basin, basically distributed along the water system in the basin, and the farther the distance from the water system, the lower the ecological risk index; (4) Precipitation, vegetation coverage and temperature are the main natural factors that affecting ecological risk in the basin, and the direct path coefficients are -0.479, -0.449 and 0.383, respectively. In addition, GDP is also the main indirect factor affecting ecological risk in the region, and the total effect coefficient is -0.49.

Key words: Kuye River Basin, ecological risk, structural equation model, grey relational degree, stepwise regression, path analysis

中图分类号:

Q146

谢兴龙, 白小军. 基于结构方程模型的窟野河流域生态安全评估与驱动因素分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2023, 39(7): 864-873.

XIE Xing-long, BAI Xiao-jun. Ecological Security Assessment and Driving Factor Analysis of Kuye River Basin Based on Structural Equation Model[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2023, 39(7): 864-873.

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