农村居民不同类型收入与畜禽养殖碳排放的动态响应关系:基于Tapio脱钩和SVAR模型的分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2021.0419

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运用Tapio脱钩模型分析了中国畜禽养殖碳排放与农村居民经营性收入、工资性收入、转移性收入以及财产性收入的脱钩状态,构建SVAR模型,并运用脉冲响应等方法分析了中国畜禽养殖碳排放与各类农村居民收入的动态响应关系。结果显示,中国畜禽养殖碳排放与4类收入之间逐渐由脱钩波动向强脱钩转变;畜禽养殖碳排放与各类农村居民收入之间存在长期协整和动态响应关系,经营性收入对畜禽养殖碳排放的影响从短期的促进作用转变为长期抑制作用,而工资性收入、转移性收入以及财产性收入的正冲击均具有减少畜禽养殖碳排放的长期累积效应;工资性收入针对畜禽养殖碳排放的正向冲击表现出持续的正向响应,而针对畜禽养殖碳排放的正向冲击,经营性收入、转移性收入与财产性收入均由短期的负向响应转变为长期的正向响应。因此,未来可考虑在拓宽农村居民增收渠道与畜禽粪污资源化利用之间建立联系,促进农村经济与环境的协调发展。

关键词: 农村居民收入, 畜禽养殖, 碳排放, 强脱钩, 协整, 冲击

Abstract: Tapio model was used to analyze the decoupling status between livestock and poultry breeding carbon emissions and operating income, wage income, transfer income and property income in rural China. Based on SVAR model and impulse response method, the dynamic response relationship between the carbon emission and the four types of income was analyzed. The results show that the relationship between the carbon emissions and the four types of income is changing from decoupling fluctuation to strong decoupling, and there is also a long-term cointegration and dynamic response between them. The positive impact of operating income on carbon emissions shifted from a short-term boost to long-term depression, however, the positive impacts of wage income, transfer income and property income have the cumulative effect of reducing carbon emissions in the long run. Wage income showed a continuous positive response to the positive impact of carbon emission, while the other three types of income changed from short-term negative response to long-term positive response. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a link between broadening the income increase channels of rural residents and the resource utilization of livestock and poultry waste, so as to promote the coordinated development of rural economy and environment.

Key words: income of rural residents, livestock and poultry breeding, carbon emission, strong decoupling, cointegration, impact

中图分类号:

F307.2

刘琼, 肖海峰. 农村居民不同类型收入与畜禽养殖碳排放的动态响应关系:基于Tapio脱钩和SVAR模型的分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2022, 38(4): 453-465.

LIU Qiong, XIAO Hai-feng. The Dynamic Relationship between Different Income Types and Carbon Emissions from Livestock and Poultry Breeding in Rural China:An Analysis Based on Tapio and SVAR Model[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2022, 38(4): 453-465.

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