互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)在中国沿海的潜在分布及其对气候变化的响应

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2021.0509

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 了解气候变化背景下外来植物互花米草（Spartina alterniflora）的潜在分布，有助于实施互花米草的早期防控措施，减少其入侵所带来的生态危害。研究构建多源数据整合技术来收集互花米草的已知分布点，应用MaxEnt模型预测当前和未来（2050s）气候情景下互花米草在中国沿海的潜在适生区，探讨气候变化对其空间分布的影响。结果表明，通过多源数据整合技术获取到充足的互花米草已知分布点，并降低了采样点的空间偏差，初步解决了复杂环境下物种信息的收集难题；MaxEnt模型的预测效果较好，测试集的AUC平均值和标准差分别为0.943和0.005，当前气候条件下互花米草的适宜分布区约占中国沿海区面积的9.35%。其中，高适宜区主要集中在江苏、浙江、福建北部的盐沼滩涂和河口湿地，占总面积的1.35%；气候因子包括等温性、气温日较差、最暖季平均温度等，对互花米草的空间分布影响较大，其累积贡献率达70%以上；未来2种气候情景下，互花米草的适宜分布区会沿着海岸线向内陆一侧不断扩展，面积由当前的9.35%分别提高到22.82%（RCP4.5气候情景）和24.19%（RCP8.5气候情景）。其中，高适宜区面积在2种增温情景下分别增加了7 470.04和13 208.47 km²，而中低适宜区面积的扩大趋势更为明显。

关键词: 互花米草, 多源数据整合, 最大熵模型, 潜在分布, 气候变化

Abstract: Understanding the potential distribution of Spartina alterniflora under climate change is necessary to formulate effective management measures and mitigate invasion danger. In this study, a multi-source data integration technology was developed to collect occurrence records of Spartina alterniflora in the Chinese coast. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of Spartina alterniflora under the current and future(2050s) climate change scenarios, and the effect of climate factors on species distribution was analyzed. Results show that sufficient occurrence records of Spartina alterniflora were obtained using the data integration technology, which can overcome spatial sampling bias and solve the difficulty of species information collection in complex environment. The prediction results of MaxEnt model were satisfactory, and the average values of AUC(area under curve) and standard deviation were 0.943 and 0.005, respectively. Under the current climatic condition, suitable areas for the distribution of Spartina alterniflora account for 9.35% of the total coastal areas, with the highly suitable areas accounting for 1.35%, which are mainly located in salt marshes of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and the north of Fujian. The spatial distribution of Spartina alterniflora are greatly affected by the climate factors, including isothermality, mean diurnal range, mean temperature of warmest quarter, etc., and these factors contribute more than 70% of the variation. Under two climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the suitable areas of Spartina alterniflora in 2050s will increase by 22.82% and 24.19%, respectively, compared with the current climate model, and show an expansive trend from coastline to inland. The high suitable area will increase by 7 470.04 and 13 208.47 km², respectively, and the expansion of medium and low suitable areas will be more obvious.

Key words: Spartina alterniflora, multi-source data integration, maximum entropy, potential distribution, climate change

中图分类号:

X835

陈思明. 互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)在中国沿海的潜在分布及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2021, 37(12): 1575-1585.

CHEN Si-ming. Potential Distribution of Spartina alterniflora Along the Chinese Coast and Its Response to Climate Chang[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2021, 37(12): 1575-1585.

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