基于DPSIR模型的曲周县氮素资源可持续利用评价与预测

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2019.0714

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 我国北方地区由于氮素利用效率低导致的环境问题日益凸显。以驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应（DPSIR）模型为基础，选取38项指标构建河北省曲周县氮素资源可持续利用评价指标体系，结合1997-2017年曲周县统计资料，对研究区氮素资源可持续利用进行评价，并利用灰色预测模型分析研究区氮素资源可持续发展趋势。结果表明，1997-2017年曲周县氮素利用驱动力、状态、影响因素评价值均呈上升趋势，而压力因素评价值呈下降趋势，响应因素评价值呈先下降后上升趋势。曲周县氮素资源在多重因素共同影响下由弱可持续水平向基本可持续水平发展。灰色预测模型预测结果显示2018-2030年研究区氮素资源可持续利用呈上升趋势。情景模拟结果表明研究区城镇化率、人均GDP、农民人均纯收入和城镇人均可支配收入提高10%，均可以使曲周县氮素资源可持续利用综合评价值提高。在曲周县经济发展和城市化进程中，增加经济作物种植面积，加大废弃物处理设施的投入以促进家庭消费系统中氮的资源化，可以提高曲周县氮素资源可持续利用水平。

关键词: 曲周县, 氮素, 可持续利用, DPSIR模型, 预测

Abstract: Environmental problems in northern China due to low nitrogen use efficiency have become increasingly prominent. Taking the DPSIR (drive force-pressure-state-impact-response) model as frame, 38 indexes were selected to set up the index system of the evaluation for nitrogen resources sustainable use combining with the statistics of Quzhou County from 1997 to 2017. The sustainable utilization level of nitrogen resources in Quzhou County was evaluated, and a grey prediction model was used to predict the sustainable development trend of nitrogen resources in the study area. The results show that from 1997 to 2017, the driving force, state and influencing factors of nitrogen use evaluation values all increased, while the evaluation value of pressure factors decreased, and the evaluation values of response factors decreased first and then increased. The nitrogen resource system of Quzhou County generally developed from weak sustainable to basic sustainable development under the joint influence of multiple factors. The grey prediction model predicte that the sustainable use of nitrogen resources will be on the rise in the period of 2018-2030. The results of the scenario simulation indicate that the urbanization rate, per capita GDP, per capita net income of farmers, and per capita disposable income of urban areas could increase the comprehensive evaluation value of sustainable utilization of nitrogen resources in Quzhou County by 10%. In the process of economic development and urbanization of Quzhou County, the planting area of economic crops and the investment in treatment facilities should be increased to promote the recycling of waste nitrogen in the household consumption system, so as to maintain a high level of nitrogen resources sustainable utilization in Quzhou County.

Key words: Quzhou County, nitrogen, sustainable utilization, DPSIR model, prediction

中图分类号:

王方方, 王延华, 蔡祖聪, 黄玉. 基于DPSIR模型的曲周县氮素资源可持续利用评价与预测[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2020, 36(9): 1133-1140.

WANG Fang-fang, WANG Yan-hua, CAI Zu-cong, HUANG Yu. Evaluation and Prediction of Nitrogen Resources Sustainable Utilization Based on the DPSIR Model in Quzhou County[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2020, 36(9): 1133-1140.

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