基于Mann-Kendall检验和重标极差分析的水质变化趋势

doi:10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2016.02.016

生态与农村环境学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 277-282.doi: 10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2016.02.016

基于Mann-Kendall检验和重标极差分析的水质变化趋势

董旭¹, 梅琨², 商栩³, 黄树辉⁴, 黄宏²

1. 温州市水利局珊溪管理局, 浙江温州 325000;
2. 温州医科大学浙南水科学研究院, 浙江温州 325035;
3. 浙江省流域水环境与健康风险研究重点实验室, 浙江温州 325035;
4. 温州医科大学环境与公共卫生学院环境科学系, 浙江温州 325035

收稿日期:2015-11-11 出版日期:2016-03-25 发布日期:2016-04-01
通讯作者: 黄宏,E-mail:huanghongpanda@163.com E-mail:huanghongpanda@163.com
作者简介:董旭(1987-),男,浙江温州人,助理工程师,学士,主要研究方向为水资源利用与保护。E-mail:276205244@qq.com
基金资助:
温州市公益性科技计划(S20140014);温州市水体污染控制与治理科技创新项目(S20140039,S20140037);温州医科大学人才科研启动基金(QTJ14045);浙江省自然科学基金(LQ16C030004)

Analysis of Variation Trend of Water Quality Based on Mann-Kendall Test and Rescaled Range Analysis

DONG Xu¹, MEI Kun², SHANG Xu³, HUANG Shu-hui⁴, HUANG Hong²

1. Wenzhou Water Resources Bureau, Shanxi Authority, Wenzhou 325000, China;
2. Southern Zhejiang Water Research Institute, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325035, China;
3. Key Laboratory of Watershed Environmental Science and Health of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou 325035, China;
4. Department of Environmental Science, School of Environmental Science and Public Health, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325035, China

Received:2015-11-11 Online:2016-03-25 Published:2016-04-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

将Mann-Kendall检验和重标极差(R/S)分析相结合,建立了一套综合分析过去和未来水质变化趋势的方法。首先,用季节性Mann-Kendall检验识别水质时间序列的过去变化趋势;然后,用R/S分析方法计算水质时间序列的Hurst指数(I_H),0< I_H< 0.5、0.5< I_H< 1.0和I_H=0.5分别指示反持续性、持续性和白噪声特征;最后,结合水环境保护规划和进展综合推断水质的未来变化趋势。基于2010-2014年珊溪水库及其6条入库支流TN浓度和COD_Mn,对该方法进行实例研究。结果表明,未来大部分支流的水质将会停止恶化或得到持续改善,然而水库TN浓度仍无明显下降趋势。水库对TN的滞留效应较强,且污染来源较多,水质的根本性改善将是一个长期的过程。除了继续控制入库支流污染,还要控制消落带污染和内源污染。

关键词: 水质, 变化趋势, Mann-Kendall检验, 重标极差分析, 长程相关性

Abstract:

A comprehensive set of methods was established based on Mann-Kendall test and rescaled range (R/S) analysis for analysis of variation trends of water quality in the past and future. Firstly, seasonal Mann-Kendall tests were performed to determine variation trend of water quality time series in the past. And then, R/S analysis was done used to calculate Hurst indexes (I_H)of the water quality time series(0< I_H< 0.5, 0.5< I_H< 1.0 and I_H=0.5 indicates anti-persistence, persistence and white noise characteristics, respectively). And in the end, variation trend of water quality in future was extrapolated by taking into comprehensive account the water environment protection program and its progress. Furthermore, this approach was demonstrated using the data of TN concentrations and COD_Mn in the Shanxi Reservoir and its six tributaries during the period of 2010-2014 as an example. Results show that water quality in most of its tributaries will stop deteriorating or go on improving in future, but TN in the reservoir will not display any declining trend, because the reservoir has a high TN retention capacity and numerous pollution sources. The reservoir has a long way to go before its water quality is fundamentally improved. In addition to keeping on controlling incoming pollution from its tributaries, countermeasures should be taken to control pollution of the water-level-fluctuating-zone and its endogenous pollution.

Key words: water quality, variation trend, Mann-Kendall test, rescaled range analysis, long-term correlation

中图分类号:

X522

董旭, 梅琨, 商栩, 黄树辉, 黄宏. 基于Mann-Kendall检验和重标极差分析的水质变化趋势[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2016, 32(2): 277-282.

DONG Xu, MEI Kun, SHANG Xu, HUANG Shu-hui, HUANG Hong. Analysis of Variation Trend of Water Quality Based on Mann-Kendall Test and Rescaled Range Analysis[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2016, 32(2): 277-282.

参考文献

[1] HUANG H,LU J.Identification of River Water Pollution Characteristics Based on Projection Pursuit and Factor Analysis[J].Environmental Earth Science,2014,72(9):3409-3417.
[2] KISI O,AY M.Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Innovative Trend Method for Water Quality Parameters of the Kizilirmak River,Turkey[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,513(26):362-375.
[3] BOUZA-DEANO R,TERNERO-RODRIGUEZ M,FERNANDEZ-ESPINOSA A J.Trend Study and Assessment of Surface Water Quality in the Ebro River[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,361(3/4):227-239.
[4] HURST H.Long Term Storage Capacity of Reservoirs[J].Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers,1951,116:770-808.
[5] ONDERKA M,MRAFKOA L,KREINA,et al.Long-Term Persistence of Stream Nitrate Concentrations (Memory Effect) Inferred From Spectral Analysis and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis[J].Water Air & Soil Pollution,2012,223(1):241-252.
[6] 丁文荣.横断山区干旱河谷气候变化趋势研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2013,29(6):681-687.
[7] 孙松.季节性Kendall检验法在黄坛水库水质趋势分析中的应用[J].广州环境科学,2011,26(2):580-585.
[8] 代堂刚.运用季节性Kendall检验数学模型分析渔洞水库水质变化趋势[J].水资源研究,2009,30(2):14-15.
[9] 于延胜,陈兴伟.R/S和Mann-Kendall法综合分析水文时间序列未来的趋势特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2008,19(3):41-44.
[10] 王冠,张锦娟,庄景.水库水源地面源污染防治对策及实践[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(10):4578-4580.
[11] 张国存,查良松.南京近50年来气候变化及未来趋势分析[J].南京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2008,31(6):580-586.
[12] 胡春华,楼倩,丁文军,等.鄱阳湖氮、磷营养盐的滞留效应研究[J].环境污染与防治,2012,34(9):1-4.
[13] 陈玉东,陈梅,张龙江,等.基于GIS的龙墩水库典型小流域面源污染氮磷负荷研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2015,31(4):492-499.

[1]	丁惠明, 沈彩娟, 陈雯, 何捷, 梁爽, 张俊彪, 蔡春芳. 池塘养殖换水目的和水质状态对换水频率的影响[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019, 35(6): 781-786.
[2]	李政, 何欢祺, 张天旭, 张秋英, 何丽, 闫振广. 典型底栖生物泥鳅的急性毒性物种敏感性评价[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019, 35(3): 392-397.
[3]	刘福兴, 杨林章, 王俊力, 邹国燕. 置入式生态滤床对低温季节重污染河水水质的改善效果[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2018, 34(2): 153-160.
[4]	谢林花, 吴德礼, 张亚雷. 中国农村生活污水处理技术现状分析及评价[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2018, 34(10): 865-870.
[5]	甘居利, 古小莉, 李刘冬, 柯常亮, 贾晓平. 近江牡蛎指示的2001-2010年广东沿岸海域石油污染及其与沿海经济的关系[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2018, 34(10): 897-902.
[6]	郭楠, 邵天杰, 赵景波. 内蒙古西部近60a极端气温变化[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2017, 33(6): 481-490.
[7]	陈生科, 万玉, 杨明姣, 甘秀海. 贵阳某农村饮用水源地水环境健康风险评价[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2017, 33(5): 403-408.
[8]	胡婷婷, 刘劲松, 戴小琳, 蔡永久, 许浩, 龚志军. 骆马湖水质时空变化特征[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2016, 32(5): 794-801.
[9]	吴喜军, 李怀恩, 孙志勇, 董颖. 陕北窟野河年径流变化特征分析与诊断[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2016, 32(4): 558-562.
[10]	谷先坤, 谷孝鸿, 曾庆飞, 毛志刚, 李旭光, 王银平, 王文侠. 固城湖及其出入湖河道水质时空分布差异与历年变化趋势分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2016, 32(1): 68-75.
[11]	郑丽萍,龙涛,邓绍坡,陈樯,林玉锁. 我国氟化物的淡水水生生物基准研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2015, 31(6): 923-927.
[12]	梁霞, 周军英, 李建宏, 王香兰, 宋宁慧, 单正军. 物种敏感度分布法（SSD）在农药水质基准推导中的应用[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2015, 31(3): 398-405.
[13]	谭渝峰, 张琪, 朱莎, 王娟娟, 靳士科, 由文辉. 基于简单建模与因子分析的湖泊水质评价[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2015, 31(3): 432-439.
[14]	李艳利, 李艳粉, 徐宗学, 关中美. 浑太河上游流域河岸缓冲区景观格局对水质的影响[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2015, 31(1): 59-68.
[15]	李典宝, 张玮, 王丽卿, 徐玉萍, 季高华. 2013年上海市河流秋季水质空间分布特征[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2015, 31(1): 50-58.

基于Mann-Kendall检验和重标极差分析的水质变化趋势

Analysis of Variation Trend of Water Quality Based on Mann-Kendall Test and Rescaled Range Analysis

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价